3.05.2011

Anatomy of an NCAA WCBB Bracketology Prejudice

It is now being postulated by Charlie Creme and his ESPN Bracketology that the Big Least might get 10 teams in the NCAA tournament. This seems grossly unfalr to the members of conferences with 10 or 12 teams for the following reasons.

Bear with me.

Big East W-L GB PCT W-L PCT STRK
#1 UCONN 16-0 -- 1.000 29-1 .967
#12 DePaul 13-3 3 .813 26-5 .839
#7 N Dame 13-3 3 .813 24-6 .800
Rutgers 11-5 5 .688 18-11 .621
#20 Marquette 10-6 6 .625 22-7 .759
Louisville 10-6 6 .625 19-11 .633
Syracuse 9-7 7 .563 22-8 .733
#17 Gtown 9-7 7 .563 21-9 .700
St. John's 9-7 7 .563 20-9 .690
W Virginia 8-8 8 .500 22-8 .733
Providence 6-10 10 .375 13-15 .464
Pittsburgh 5-11 11 .313 14-16 .467
South Florida 3-13 13 .188 12-19 .387
Villanova 3-13 13 .188 11-18 .379
Cincinnati 2-14 14 .125 9-19 .321
Seton Hall 1-15 15 .063 8-22 .267

There is talk about this league getting 10 teams into the NCAA tournament and many of us have decried the rankings of some of these teams all season long

Perhaps it would be edifying to understand the unfair advantage this 16 team conference has over those of us who have teams in 12 or 10 member conferences.

At first it's clear that it's an incredible advantage to play any of the bottom 6 teams in this league. All of the bottom 6 have losing records In comparison there are only 2 SEC teams with losing records - Ol Miss 10 and 19 and Miss State 13 and 16. Our worst SEC team is better that the bottom two above and Ms State is better than the bottom four. The bottom 6 BEast teams scored 4 wins vs the top 10 teams in over 60 games. Some of those top 10 teams played Seton Hall, Cinncinatti, Pittsburg or Providence twice this season since the 16 game league schedule allows for 2 games vs a single team.

To take it further
Pittsburg has one win over the top 10 in the league over W.Va and losses to Dusquene, St Francis, and 12 win 18 loss Minnesota
Providence has ONE win - a 2 point win over Louisville and they lost to Alabama *our 3rd worst and Florida
and they lost to Hofstra and St Josephs
South Florida eeked out a win over GTown but lost to Samford, Nebraska and Morgan State
Villanova failed to win vs any of the top 10 and lost to Delaware, Drexel and St Josephs
Cinncinatti got a final game win over Marquette and lost to Miami Ohio, Wright State and Dayton
Seton Hall no top 10 BEast wins and losses to Drexel, Hofstra and Fla Gulf Coast

So it's clear that these TOP 10 Beast teams get a start with a 6 and 0 Beast record unless they seriously mess up and it's clear that Marquette, WVa and Louisville have some explaining to do along with St John's and Rutgers as NCAA quality teams.

WVA's best win is over IOWA STATE ranked 17 and if you look at their record you will find it difficult to justify their ranking. They also beat a then ranked 25 TCU that is now out of the NCAA it seems. So why is WVA at 22 and 8 in the tournament? They lost to Pittsburg.
ST John's best win was the first game vs Marist. - So their 20 and 9 record is NCAA bid worthy? BS
Syracuse best win is over Ohio State and we know Ohio State but 22 - 8 with one win over a questionable Big 10 team is good enough for a bid to the dance?
Louisville's best win is the mystery win over KY. - but they lost to ODU Marist Houston and Providence so at 19 and 11 they get to dance?
Marquette beat Wisc Green Bay by 3 and lost to Creighton out of conference but they are 22 and 7 with a win over DePaul in conference and a loss to Cinncinatti. Yet they are ranked 22nd? and dancing.
and finally
RUTGERS lost to Cal Temple and Boston College on the way to a 18 and 11 record yet they are in Charlie Creme's bracket.

Here's my theory. The BEast covers territory from Florida to Mass to Chicago and the cities where they play have lots of papers and writers. There are also a plethora of coaches in a 16 team league with associations with the voting coaches. The more teams in more cities equals more votes. The more coaches with more associations equals more votes.. The votes in the rankings tend to effect the Charlie Creme Bracketology and lest we forget that Bracketology is done in Bristol and it ain't Bristol Tennessee.

The Big East schedule is a very weak schedule - No home and home with the best teams facing each other on the road and at home. Instead a team my go through their schedule playing the 7 best teams at home and the worst teams on the road - what an incredible advantage.
No way this situation is fair to teams in a league where they play home and away vs the best teams in their league. Do you see it any other way?

Example of a great BEast schedule is Marquette
they got ND DePaul, Rutgers, Syracuse WVa St John's and Lousiville AT HOME and still lost to SYR ND and Rutgers.
Louisville got St Johns, Rutgers Gtown WVa and DePaul at home and ND 5x and Syr on the road losing to all of them
So is it fair to compare a Big 12 or Big 10 or SEC or Pac 10 team that has to play home and away vs the top teams in their league with a BEast team that only plays one game vs the best in their league and pads their specs with wins over 6 teams with losing records - four of which don't even get to play in the Big Least tournament. What say you? BOGUS or FAIR?
There is much more detailed data included in THIS THREAD on The SUmmiTT message board Several of the least deserving Charlie Creme NCAA Tournament Teams records from the BEast are broken down in detail according to the Real Time RPI.